Predictive Risk Scoring Tools Displacing Professional Intake Judgment
#1Allegheny County's AFST has been operational since 2016 and scores every incoming CPS call; it has been studied extensively and is actively influencing screening decisions despite evidence of racial bias in administrative data inputs (Virginia Eubanks documented this in 'Automating Inequality'). Oregon DHS deployed a similar predictive tool in 2019, and at least 20 U.S. states have active or piloted predictive risk tools in child welfare as of 2024. The commercial market is growing: companies like Eckerd Connects and SAS sell risk stratification platforms directly to state agencies, and federal Title IV-E waiver flexibility is accelerating adoption.